![]() Democrats, however, made up only 33 percent of the electorate, their lowest level from 1984 forward. In the exit polls, Republicans ended up with their best party ID advantage (+3 over Democrats) from 1984 forward. Here are some of the key takeaways that help explain the Republicans’ win in the House - albeit not a “red wave” - and loss in the Senate. There is a difference between important issues and determinative factors in elections. Unlike what most partisan pundits and politicos and media commentators would have you believe, the “root causes” of the Republicans’ disappointing outcome weren’t mail-in ballots, abortion or voter concern about threats to democracy, though those issues were important to some. This conclusion is based on The Winston Group’s “Post-election Analysis: It’s the Year of the Independent,” released this week, in which we spent two months dissecting the Edison Research exit poll data and analyzing our Winning the Issues post-election research, along with other data. But a poor Republican economic campaign message, focused on attacking Pelosi and Biden without offering solutions, was problematic, as was candidate quality, especially in the Senate races, and they did not want a return of Trump dominance in Washington. Voters, especially independents, were motivated by economic issues, their unhappiness with the direction of the country and President Joe Biden’s leadership, and they wanted solutions. Republicans won the House, after just four years, but with a thin margin. It’s speculation and conjecture.īased on my analysis of the election results, here’s what I think the Post should have written. ![]() Wade, and the challenge to democracy presented by former president Donald Trump and many Republican candidates who denied the 2020 election results.” Writing that Republicans in 2022 “limped to what’s looking like the thinnest of majorities in the lower chamber,” the Post’s analysis claimed that voters “appear to have been more motivated by threats to abortion rights following the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. In the days after the 2022 election, a Washington Post article outlined the history of recent changes in the control of the House and the causes behind the party switches. Much of the media served up a similar narrative. For the past couple of months, the Biden White House and Hill Democrats have tried to characterize their loss of the House as some kind of Democratic victory, clearly misunderstanding both the election outcome and the mood of the electorate. I actually agree.īut listening to the president and the media, that definition, apparently, doesn’t extend to Kevin McCarthy and his five-vote Republican margin in the House. Still, Democrats argued successfully back then that when it comes to control of the House, a win is a win, whatever the margin. But by 2020, her margin had slipped to five seats, a narrow victory by any measure. Then, in 2018, Nancy Pelosi reclaimed the gavel. In 2010, Republicans swept the House, winning more than 60 seats, and then governed for eight years. ![]() In 2006, Democrats won back the House with 31 seats, but their tenure lasted only four years. In the 28 years since, House control has flipped three times. ![]() For most Republicans, it was an educational experience as much as a partisan success. It was our first taste of what control of the House really means, from having committee chairs to the setting of legislative priorities. The force of that victory changed the trajectory of Congress, but for Republicans who had labored under Democratic majority rule for so long, it was more than an exhilarating election win. I remember the day Republicans took back the House in 1994 - after 40 long years in the wilderness of the minority.
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